چهار تنگناي جهاني در بازار مسكن

نهادهاي تحقيقاتي حوزه مسكن در آمريكا و انگليس به دليل بيم‌واميد به آينده اين حوزه در كشورشان، زودتر از مراكز علمي ساير كشورها، اقدام به بررسي چشم‌انداز جهاني بازار املاك براي سال 2012 كرده‌اند. نتايج اين تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد هم‌اكنون در بازار مسكن اغلب كشورها 4 تنگنا وجود دارد كه خريداران مسكن به خصوص افراد كم‌درآمدي كه براي اولين بار قصد دارند «صاحب‌خانه شدن» را تجربه كنند، هدف قرار مي‌دهد. طبق آنچه هاليفاكس – موسسه مالي‌ تحقيقاتي در انگليس- پيش‌بيني كرده است، متقاضيان مسكن در سال‌جاري ميلادي از يك‌سو بايد ضعف بانك‌ها در ارائه تسهيلات خريد را تحمل كنند و از سوي ديگر تحت تاثير تورم در سبد هزينه خانوار – رشد قيمت كالاهاي اساسي- دچار ضعف جديد در توان مالي خريد مسكن خواهند شد. اين موسسه تحقيقاتي در تحليل دلايل پيش‌بيني خود، به ركود اقتصادي ناشي از بحران منطقه يورو اشاره كرده كه در ماه‌هاي آتي موجب مي‌شود عمده بانك‌ها در كشورها از جذب سرمايه‌هاي نقدي باز بمانند و در نتيجه قادر نباشند تسهيلات پرداخت كنند. همچنين عامل ديگري كه مانع سيستم بانكي در ارائه تسهيلات خريد مسكن خواهد شد تجربه تلخ بازپرداخت تسهيلات و دسترسي سخت به وثيقه‌هاي ملكي وام‌گيرنده‌ها است كه ريسك وام‌دهي براي موسسات مالي را افزايش داده است. اما در كنار اين پيش‌بيني، جامعه ملي خانه‌سازي آمريكا نيز تحقيقات تازه‌اي درباره چشم‌انداز بازار مسكن در سال 2012 انجام داده كه محتواي آن از خوش‌بيني به نيمه‌دوم سال حكايت دارد.

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